The best finishes for Independents in BC

There were 35 independent candidates and 11 unaffiliated ones of which 7 were defacto independent.   Overall the independents did much better in this election than in past ones even if you ignore the impact of Bob Simpson and John van Dongen.

I used 3.5% as the cut off because it shows that there was some effort there and managed to capture all the independent candidates anyone may have heard of.

Here are the top independent candidates ranked by percentage of the vote they achieved.

1. Vicki Huntingdon  48.03% 10,620 Delta South - 1/3
2. Bob Simpson       37.28%  4,933 Cariboo North - 2/3
3. John van Dongen   28.10%  5,138 Abbotsford South - 2/5
4. Arthur Hadland    25.57%  3,021 Peace River North - 2/4
5. Joseph Hughes     13.30%  2,239 Kootenay West - 3/4
6. Gary Law           8.46%  1,428 Richmond Centre - 4/7
7. Moe Gill           5.77%  1,004 Abbotsford West - 4/6
8. Tyrel Andrew Phol  4.91%    413 Peace River South - 4/4
9. Dayleen Van Ryswyk 4.82%  1,025 Kelowna Mission - 4/4
10. Michael Markwick   4.37%    918 West Vancouver Capilano - 4/5
11. Jamie Webbe        4.08%    939 North Vancouver Seymour - 5/5
12. Ryan McKinnon      4.05%    782 Chilliwack Hope - 4/4
13. James Crosty       3.98%    943 New Westmister - 5/6
14. Richard Lee        3.98%    672 Richmond Centre - 5/7
15. Gary Young         3.69%    455 Cariboo Chilcotin - 4/4
16. Mischa Popoff      3.59%    608 Boundary Similkameen 4/5

The one that interests me is Joseph Hughes in Kootenay West, who is he and why did he do so well?   

Comparing 2013 Preliminary Vote Count to 2009

Since we have not yet counted the special ballots, here is the comparison to the 2009 preliminary vote so that we can have a more a accurate comparison between the two elections in the interim.

Elect   Libs     NDP      Greens   BCCP   Others  total
2013   724,068  643,434  130,421  77,799  53,882 1,629,544
2009   713,994  646,886  130,233  32,620  25,050 1,548,770
Change +10,074   -3,452     +212 +45,179 +28,832   +80,774

The Liberals increased their vote by just over 10,000 while the NDP lost 3,450.

The Greens are almost the same though they only ran 61 candidates in this election and not 85 as in 2009.   This means the average Green vote rose by 40% in each riding

The BC Conservatives increased 45,000 votes but they also ran 56 candidates in 2013 as opposed to 24 in in 2009 which means they achieved almost the same amount per candidate.

The vote for all the others more than doubled.
---------------------
Update on May 22nd

For the record, here is how the parties did with the 91,759 special ballots cast in 2009:

Liberals   NDP   Greens  BCCP  Others
 37,667   44,678  4,383  1,831  3,200  
 41.05%   48.69%  4.78%  2.00%  3.49%

As you can see the NDP did better than their election day results while the Greens did significantly worse.   I have no idea if this pattern will repeat itself in 2013.

Getting a lot of votes is not enough to win

One of the quirks of our arcane electoral system is that some candidates do much better than others in getting votes but still lose the election.

Here are the top 10 losers of the 2013 BC election

1. 11,024 Kasandra Dyke NDP Comox Valley - 7th best result for a New Democrat
2. 9,999 Margaret MacDiarmid Liberal Vancouver Fairview - 23rd best result for a Liberal
3. 9,911 Barry Avis NDP Parksville Qualicum
4. 9,629 Stephen Roberts  Liberal Saanich North and the Islands
5. 9,377 Christy Clark Liberal Vancouver Point Grey
6. 9,294 Adam Olsen Green - 3rd place in Saanich North and the Islands - 2nd best result for a Green
7. 9,257 Dick Cannings NDP Penticton
8. 9,179 Elizabeth Rosenau NDP Maple Ridge Pitt Meadows
9. 8,939 Chris Wilson NDP Coquitlam Maillardville
10. 8,876 Nick Facey Liberal North Island

19 of the MLAs elected a week ago did not manage to get as many votes as the above ten 

Here is the list of the MLAs that received the least support on election day

1. 3,769 Doug Donaldson NDP Stikine
2. 3,904 Mike Bernier Liberal Peace River South
3. 4,340 Jennifer Rice NDP North Coast
4. 4,859 John Rustad Liberal Nechako Lakes
5. 5,459 Coralee Oakes Liberal Cariboo North
6. 5,539 Jackie Teggart Liberal Fraser Nicola
7. 6,019 Norm Macdonald NDP Columbia River Revelstoke
8. 6,809 Patt Pimm Liberal Peace River North
9. 6,952 Donna Barnett Liberal Cariboo Chilcotin
10. 7,320 Kathy Corrigan NDP Burnaby Deer Lake

Turnout in the BC Election - lower than 2009 - Also, turnout by riding

This is the preliminary turnout which includes advance voting and the voting on May 14th, it is does not include special ballots like absentee ballots or early voting.  In 2009 there were 102,467 special ballots cast and in 2005 there were 96,330 cast.   I think we can safely assume about 120,000 to 150,000 special ballots were cast in 2013.

Total turnout was 1,629,454 out of 3,116,626 people registered to vote by April 23rd, or 52.29% turnout.   The total registered voters is likely to have risen about 45,000 on election day but roughly 270,000 to 300,000 people were likely not registered to vote.  

For comparison, the number of advance and election votes as a percentage of the public registered by the close of registrations:
Year    Voted     Registered  Turnout
2013  1,629,454  3,116,626    52.29%
2009  1,549,100  2,948,175    52.54%.
2005  1,677,909  2,744,078    61.15%

Bold indicates ridings with turnout 110% of provincial average, italic indicates less than 90% of provincial average.  Underlined ridings changed hands

Riding	Adv + May 14 votes	2013 Reg Voters	Turnout
Saanich North and the Islands	29171	44980	64.85%
Delta South	22110	34473	64.14%
Oak Bay-Gordon Head	23953	37443	63.97%
Parksville-Qualicum	26801	42280	63.39%
Saanich South	23829	38685	61.60%
Stikine	8092	13219	61.21%
North Vancouver-Seymour	23016	38055	60.48%
Surrey-White Rock	23460	39796	58.95%
Cariboo North	12317	20926	58.86%
Boundary-Similkameen	16947	28817	58.81%
Powell River-Sunshine Coast	21728	36976	58.76%
Cowichan Valley	24813	42312	58.64%
Shuswap	23607	40475	58.32%
Comox Valley	28681	49503	57.94%
Fraser-Nicola	12330	21363	57.72%
Delta North	20164	35528	56.76%
Cariboo-Chilcotin	13232	23375	56.61%
Nanaimo-North Cowichan	22687	40230	56.39%
Kamloops-South Thompson	23353	41593	56.15%
Fort Langley-Aldergrove	26162	47423	55.17%
Alberni-Pacific Rim	17187	31178	55.13%
North Vancouver-Lonsdale	21773	39633	54.94%
Nechako Lakes	8915	16270	54.79%
Chilliwack-Hope	19292	35237	54.75%
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows	21532	39378	54.68%
Nelson-Creston	15057	27672	54.41%
Abbotsford West	17032	31401	54.24%
West Vancouver-Capilano	21011	38794	54.16%
Port Moody-Coquitlam	19029	35281	53.94%
Penticton	22953	42651	53.82%
Kootenay West	16837	31290	53.81%
Vancouver-Point Grey	21494	39988	53.75%
Esquimalt-Royal Roads	20760	38638	53.73%
Vancouver-Quilchena	20129	37501	53.68%
Langley	24462	45610	53.63%
Juan de Fuca	21038	39270	53.57%
Victoria-Beacon Hill	23285	43521	53.50%
Surrey-Panorama	23717	44477	53.32%
Kamloops-North Thompson	21201	39857	53.19%
Maple Ridge-Mission	20169	37982	53.10%
Prince George-Mackenzie	17429	32877	53.01%
Surrey-Cloverdale	27296	51811	52.68%
Vancouver-Fairview	23311	44362	52.55%
Chilliwack	19486	37145	52.46%
Skeena	10830	20645	52.46%
West Vancouver-Sea to Sky	19332	36949	52.32%
Port Coquitlam	20109	38458	52.29%
Nanaimo	20870	40010	52.16%
Vernon-Monashee	24077	46322	51.98%
Abbotsford-Mission	18692	35989	51.94%
North Island	20961	40514	51.74%
Coquitlam-Maillardville	19670	38057	51.69%
Victoria-Swan Lake	19902	38623	51.53%
Surrey-Fleetwood	17965	34950	51.40%
New Westminster	23690	46178	51.30%
Abbotsford South	18283	35657	51.27%
North Coast	7667	14956	51.26%
Columbia River-Revelstoke	12492	24467	51.06%
Richmond-Steveston	21465	42098	50.99%
Prince George-Valemount	17620	34877	50.52%
Vancouver-Fraserview	19339	39067	49.50%
Vancouver-Kensington	18810	38016	49.48%
Burnaby-Edmonds	17620	35754	49.28%
Kootenay East	14887	30224	49.26%
Surrey-Newton	15891	32557	48.81%
Burnaby-Lougheed	19800	40604	48.76%
Surrey-Tynehead	17504	36240	48.30%
Coquitlam-Burke Mountain	17485	36473	47.94%
Kelowna-Mission	21278	44671	47.63%
Surrey-Green Timbers	14541	30571	47.56%
Peace River North	11816	24854	47.54%
Vancouver-Hastings	18900	39822	47.46%
Peace River South	8415	18066	46.58%
Vancouver-West End	17092	36978	46.22%
Vancouver-Langara	17656	38225	46.19%
Vancouver-Mount Pleasant	18478	41446	44.58%
Vancouver-Kingsway	16638	37346	44.55%
Richmond East	19511	44469	43.88%
Westside-Kelowna	19441	44830	43.37%
Burnaby North	15150	35062	43.21%
Burnaby-Deer Lake	15782	36598	43.12%
Vancouver-False Creek	18137	42232	42.95%
Kelowna-Lake Country	18763	44610	42.06%
Surrey-Whalley	15163	36498	41.54%
Richmond Centre	16884	43387	38.91%

The Impact of Party Affiliation on the Election Results

Because of an error by the BC Conservatives in this election we can measure how much impact party affiliation may have on the results or not.    Five BC Conservative candidates inadvertently were left of the BC Conservative candidate list submitted to the Elections BC, they shortly afterwards disavowed one of those candidates.   They also dropped three other candidates before nominations closed because of problems with them.

• Bill Clarke in Vancouver Quilchena 
• Christine Clark in Burnaby Lougheed 
• Mike Patras in Maple Ridge Pitt Meadows
• Wayne Marklund in Burnaby North

The candidates dropped by the party well into the election

• Jeff Sprague in North Vancouver Lonsdale on April 23rd about a drunk driving allegation - the party managed to replace him before nominations closed
• Ian Tootill in Vancouver False Creek on April 23rd for comments online
• Mischa Popoff in Boundary Similkameen on April 25th for comments online 
• Rob Herbert in Vancouver West End on April 28th for comments online

Since six of these candidates are all in Metro Vancouver and ran without any affiliation we can make some comparisons

Let us first compare results in the Burnaby - New Westminster - Tri Cities area
Burnaby Loughheed where Christine Clarke ran
Liberals         NDP         Green      Non-Afil BCCP
 7,322 41.56%  7,637 43.34% 1,417 8.04%  1,244 7.06%
Burnaby North where Wayne Marklund ran
Liberals         NDP         Green      Non-Afil BCCP
 9,376 47.35%  8,610 43.48% 1,359 6.86%    455 2.30%

And now where the BC Conservative affiliation was on the ballot
Coquitlam Burke Mountain

Liberals          NDP        Green        BCCP
 8,868 50.72%  6,420 36.72% 1,010 5.78%    941 5.78%
Port Coquitlam

Liberals          NDP        Green        BCCP
 7,412 36.86% 10,588 52.65%     0 0.00%  1,377 6.85%
New Westminster - Former Conservative MP Paul Forseth ran for the Conservatives here.

Liberals          NDP        Green        BCCP
 8,030 33.90% 11,464 48.39% 1,938 8.18%  1,147 4.84%


Christine Clarke ran a year ago for the BC Conservatives in the Port Moody by-election so had a campaign team and some name recognition in the area, I would expect here to do better

The results for the two candidates that were formally on the ballot as BC Conservatives had results almost as good as the results for Christive Clark and much better results than Wayne Marklund.  

We then have the two Maple Ridge Ridings
Maple Ridge Pitt Meadows where Mike Patras ran

Liberals         NDP        Green      Non-Afil BCCP
9,860 45.79% 9,179 42.63% 1,953 9.07%    540 2.51%
Maple Ridge Mission - Conservative candidate Chad Thompson

Liberals         NDP        Green       BCCP
9,408 46.65% 8,032 39.82% 1,654 8.20%  1,075 5.33%

The BC Conservative affliatated candidate did significantly better even though in my opinion Mike Patras ran a stronger campaign than Chad Thompson

Then we have the Westside of Vancouver
Vancouver Quilchena where Bill Clarke ran

Liberals           NDP        Green       Non-Afil BCCP
13,302 64.74%  5,078 25.32% 1,426  7.08%  593 2.95%
Vancouver False Creek were dropped BCCP candidate Ian Toothill ran

Liberals           NDP        Green       Dropped BCCP
 9,407 51.87%  6,764 37.29% 1,644  9.06%  180 0.99%

Vancouver West End where dropped BCCP candidate Ron Herbert ran

Liberals            NDP       Green       Dropped BCCP
 4,818 28.19%  9,776 57.20% 1,897 11.10%  122 0.71%


Ridings with Conservative on the ballot:
Vancouver Point Grey

Liberals            NDP       Green        BCCP
 9,377 43.63% 10,162 47.28% 1,431  6.66%  345 1.61%
Vancouver Langara

Liberals            NDP       Green        BCCP
 9,365 53.04%  6,727 38.10%   916  5.19%  607 3.44%
Vancouver Fraserview  

Liberals            NDP       Green        BCCP
 9,127 47.19% 8 ,581 44.37% 1,053  5.44%  578 2.99%

In this case I can not see any clear pattern that shows the BC Conservative name on the ballot made much difference since all six of these candidates had such dismal results.   I would expect Bill Clarke to do somewhat better because he was the MP for the area for the PCs from 1972 to 1984

The BC Conservative results overall for these 11 Conservative candidates and two dropped candidates are very low, but the the pattern I can see is that the BC Conservative name pushed the candidates up a bit.   With BC Conserative on the ballot the average result was 4.41%, without it was 3.71% for the four unaffiliated but still connected and 2.75% when you look at the two dropped candidates that still ran.

I wish I had more data points to work with, this is a very small sample and is effected by the fact that two of the candidates without Conservative on the ballot should have been among the best results for the BC Conservatives.   I do not think this data can be used to make any predictions on future results with any accuracy.

Comparing results in various Victoria area ridings in 2013, 2009 and 2005

These results are comparing the vote before the absentee and other special ballots are considered in this election and past elections.   These ballots, which are likely to number between 1,000 and 2,000 in each of the ridings, will be counted on May 27th.  They are not likely to change the outcome though might have the potential in Saanich North and the Islands.

In looking at the results, in this region the Greens took vote almost in equal proportions from the NDP and the Liberals.   In the strongest three Green races the party took an almost equal number of votes from the NDP and Liberals.   Vote splitting is not going on here.

CRD Results overall

Elect. Vote      NDP        Liberals       Greens      
2013  161,938 60,775 37.53% 46,188 28.52% 42,601 26.31% 
2009  158,042 80,696 51.06% 58,695 37.14% 17,969 11.37%


Oak Bay Gordon Head - Green gain from the Liberals
Elect. Vote      NDP        Liberals       Greens      Others
2013  23,953  6,772 28.27%  7,124 29.74%  9,602 40.09%  455 1.90%
2009  24,154 10,736 44.45% 11,266 44.79%  2,152  8.91%
2005  27,012 11,430 42.15% 12,911 47.80%  2,232  8.26%  439 1.63%

Total special ballots in 2009 1,369 and in 2005 1,280

Andrew Weaver pulled almost evenly from the NDP and the Liberals.   If the NDP could have managed to get their identified vote from 2009 and 2005 out to vote, they would have won.

He also won convincingly.  I put this down to one major factor I saw in few other places, a large team of active volunteers.

Victoria Beacon Hill - NDP hold
Elect. vote       NDP         Liberals      Greens      Other
2013  23,285  11,335 48.68%  3,981 17.10% 7,852 33.72%  117 0.50% 
2009  22,649  12,592 55.60%  5,998 26.48% 3,768 16.64%  291 1.28%
2005  26,322  15,064 57.21%  8,091 30.73% 2,783 10.57%  394 1.50%

In 2009 there were 1,551 special ballots cast and in 2005 there were 1,863  

What I think we can take from this is that Jane Sterk gained more from the Liberals than the NDP.  A bit more strategic voting from BC Liberals and a higher turn out and the results would have be different.

Karen Bill is the only Liberal in BC to finish in third place.

Saanich North and the Islands - NDP gain from the Liberals
Elect. Vote      NDP       Liberals      Greens       Others
2013 29,171  9,681 33.19%  9,629 33.01% 9,294 31.86%   567 1.94%
2009 27,668 12,129 43.84% 12,526 45.27% 3,013 10.89% 
2005 30,143 11,265 37.37% 13,265 44.01% 4,557 15.12% 1,056 3.50%

Total special ballots in 2009 1,569 and in 2005 1,418

Once again the Greens pulled almost evenly from the Liberals and NDP though slightly more from the Liberals in this case.   

Victoria Swan Lake - NDP hold (Victoria Hillside in 2005)
Elect. Vote      NDP       Liberals     Greens      Others
2013 19,902 10,891 54.72% 4,509 22.66% 4,502 22.62%
2009 20,467 12,389 60.53% 5,456 26.66% 2,459 12.01% 163 0.80%
2005 22,505 12,847 57.09% 7,042 31.29% 2,657 11.81% 480 2.13%

Total special ballots in 2009 1,208 and in 2005 1,927

Greens took slightly more from the NDP than the Liberals.   An interesting thing to note, the gap between the NDP and the Greens in this election is smaller than the gap in Oak Bay Gordon Head.

Saanich South - NDP Hold
Elect. Vote      NDP         Liberals     Greens      Others
2013  23,829 10,824 45.42%  8,473 35.56% 3,612 15.16% 920 3.86%
2009  23,650 11,134 47.08% 10,727 45.36% 1,561  6.60% 228 0.96%
2005  26,720 12,809 47.94% 11,958 44.75% 1,902  7.12% 565 2.11%

Total special ballots in 2009 1,161 and in 2005 1,078

In this riding the Liberals dropped more than the NDP.
   
Esquimalt Royal Roads - NDP Hold - the riding changed too much to allow a comparison to 2005

Elect. Vote      NDP         Liberals     Greens      Others
2013  20,760  9,997 48.16% 5,959 28.70% 4,486 21.61% 318 1.53%
2009  20,176 10,708 53.07% 6,098 30.22% 3,370 16.70% 

Total special ballots in 2009 1,581

Here the drift seems to be from the NDP to the Greens, though nothing dramatic.   


Juan de Fuca - NDP Hold - the riding has changed too much to allow a comparison to 2005

Elect. Vote      NDP         Liberals     Greens      
2013  21,038 11,272 53.58% 6,513 30.96% 3,253 15.46%
2009  19,278 11,008 57.10% 6,624 34.36% 1,646  8.54%

Total special ballots in 2009 857 

John Horgan is the only New Democrat to increase his vote in this region.   At the same time the Greens doubled their vote.   I do not see any strong drain from the NDP to the Greens in this riding.

When you look at the CRD overall there is no evidence that Greens are more of a threat to the NDP than the Liberals.   There is also clear evidence that the Greens have the capacity to win more than one seat here in 2017.  I think a well run Green campaign with enough volunteers could win four or five seats in 2017.  Certainly I would be surprised of the Greens took any less than three.   In this election only one of the Green candidates had a full slate of volunteers.

Looking at voting splitting in 5 Interior Ridings

I am looking the election day results this time compared to 2009, 2005 and 2001   There are still some 150,000 or so special ballots to be counted on May 27th.  There are a couple of ridings where this might make a difference in BC but unlikely.

I am looking at five ridings the BC Liberals won this election to see if there any interesting patterns.  Note that only 2013 and 2009 are one set of  boundaries and 2005 and 2001 are another.

What I find interesting in looking at this data is that whole idea of vote splitting is not going anywhere in the numbers I am looking at.   If the Greens are a problem for the NDP, they should have done better in a number of the following races.

Kootenay East - Liberal Hold - held by Bill Bennett since 2001(called Kootenay East in 2001 and 2005)
Elect Vote     NDP         Liberals    Green         BCCP/Unity
2013  14,887 5,463 36.70% 9,424 63.20%
2009  15,531 5,516 35.52% 7,973 51.34%   506 3.26% 1,536 9.89%
2005  15,855 6,939 43.77% 7,618 48.05% 1,298 8.19%
2001  15,793 3,502 22.17% 9,771 61.87% 1,229 7.78%   621 3.93%  

Total special ballots in 2009 - 878 in 2005 - 933 in 2001 - 707

This riding should clearly show to people that the NDP is not the natural home for the Greens.  The NDP vote did not rise in this election even though there was no Green candidate.   Even in 2009 with BC Conservative leader Wilf Hanni running in the riding and a dramatic drop in the Green vote, the NDP vote not only did not rise, it fell.  

The Green vote was consistent from 2001 to 2005 even though the NDP vote rose dramatically

Peace River North - Liberal Hold - held by Patt Pimm since 2009
Other in 2013 is a BC Conservative, in 2009 and 2005 it was a Green

Elect Vote     NDP         Liberals      Ind           Other
2013  11,816 1,116  9.44% 6,809 57.63% 3,021 25.57% 870  7.36%
2009   8,315 1,139 13.70% 3,617 43.50% 2,657 31.95% 902 10.85%
2005   8,768 2,375 27.09% 5,223 59.57%   578  6.59% 592  6.75%

Total special ballots in 2009 - 937 in 2005 - 492

This riding is mainly interesting because Arthur Hadland with half a campaign in 2009 came within 1,000 votes of Pat Pimm.   This time around he ran a full campaign and he did increase his vote by almost 400 but the vote for the Liberals skyrocketed by close to 3,200.  The turn out in Peace River North hit an all time record for voters and had one of their best percentages as well, though still likely to be much better than 50%

Fraser Nicola - Liberal Gain - was held by Harry Lali of the NDP from 2005 to 2013 and from 1991 to 2001 Harry did not run in the 2001 election (in 2005 this was Yale-Lillooet and included Hope and the Similkameen but did not incluide Cache Creek, Ashcroft, Clinton or Savona)

Elect Vote     NDP         Liberals      Green     Other(BCCP 2013)
2013  12,330 4,785 38.81% 5,539 44.92% 1,174  9.52%   832  6.75% 
2009  12,817 6,275 48.96% 5,494 42.86%   834  6.51%   214  1.67%
2005  16,689 8,137 48.76% 6,734 40.35% 1,529  9.16%   289  1.73%
2001  15,984 2,743 17.16% 9,636 60.29% 1,126  7.04% 1,983 12.41%

Total special ballots in 2009 - 830 in 2005 - 553 in 2001 - 404

So is this a place the NDP can claim the Greens split the vote?  Not really.   The Liberals had a Conservative to content with that took 832 votes meanwhile the Green vote only rose by 340 votes meaning by all vote splitting logic the Liberals should have suffered not the NDP.

You can also see in 2005 the dramatic comeback of the NDP and the Green vote increased as well.   Harry Lali was elected in 2005 without the Greens.  

Kamloops North Thompson - Liberal Hold - held since 2009 by Terry Lake - In 2013 there were 420 other other votes, in 2009 324 in 2005  302 and in 2001 970

Elect Vote     NDP         Liberals       Green      BCCP/Unity 
2013  21,312 8,277 38.84% 11,080 51.99%     0 0.00%  1,535 7.20% 
2009  19,808 8,798 44.42%  9,351 47.21% 1,317 6.65%    
2005  23,196 9,264 43.47% 11,228 48.40% 1,608 6.93%    764 3.29%
2001  20,899 2,985 14.28% 12,128 58.03% 2,985 14.28%   790 3.78% 

Total special ballots in 2009 - 1135 in 2005 - 492 in 2001 - 941

In 2013 in Kamloops we had no Green candidate but there was a Conservative candidate.  The 1,317 Green votes from 2009 did not go to the NDP in 2013.  The NDP vote was done.  Meanwhile even though there was a BC Conservative candidate taking 1,535 votes the BC Liberal vote rose 


Kamloops South Thompson Liberal Hold - Todd Stone elected for the first time - NDP ran their 2009 candidate Tom Friedman again  This was called Kamloops in 2005 In 2013 others took 377, 

Elect Vote     NDP         Liberals      Green     BCCP/Unity
2013 23,353 8,095 34.66% 13,439 57.55%     0  0.00% 1,442 6.17%
2009 21,997 7,640 34.73% 11,917 54.18% 1,403  6.38% 1,037 4.71%
2005 22,665 9,418 41.55% 10,852 47.88% 1,632  7.20%   763 3.37% 
2001 19,289 4,389 22.75% 12,258 63.55% 2,180 11.30%   407 2.11%

Total special ballots in 2009 - 1302 in 2005 - 1002 in 2001 - 1,071

Here again we can see that the NDP does not gain much in this election even though there is no Green candidate.   The big gains were made by the BC Liberals through getting more people to vote.

Overall the Greens and BC Conservatives seem to have little or no impact on the votes of the NDP or the Liberals in this election. Vote splitting does not exist in reality.   

The NDP need to look at their own ground campaigns and ask why they did not have the 300+ volunteers needed to properly canvas a riding and get the vote out.  It is not the fault of Greens if people are unwilling to actively work on NDP campaigns. It is also not the fault of the Greens if the NDP runs a campaign that is lackluster and without any real vision.   To run a positive campaign you need to engage people's hope.  As Jane Sterk pointed out, a $20 a month increase in welfare is hardly a visionary approach.