Thursday, May 12, 2016

Finally a fix for political junkies in BC - 2 new polls

Hi, my name is Bernard and I am a political junkie.   I get my fix from election days and polls.   As much as a I know these polls are not real proper data, it is all I have to go on.   It has been six months since I last had a BC poll hit.  

Here are the results from Ipsos and Insights West

Party   All of BC   Metro Van   Van Isle    Rest of BC
       Ipsos Insit Ipsos Insit Ipsos Insit Ipsos Insit
Liberal 42    34    32    37    32    21    44    35
NDP     36    40    39    39    39    52    28    35
Green   10    14     6    13    25    22     9    13
Cons    11    10    10     9     4     5    18    18
Other    1     2     1     2     0     0     2     1

So what can we make of these numbers?    First, there is no clear leader, there is a race.   Second, the Greens have a measurable strength on Vancouver Island, high enough that more seats are a realistic target.  Third, the moribund BC Conservatives have reasonable strength in the interior and north.

The 10% or so support for the BC Conservatives says to me there is a desire by a part of the BC population for an actual right wing party.   This number is in my opinion people parking their support.    The party has no leader, no media presence and no obvious grass roots organization but it is polling at 10%.  

The NDP has good enough numbers that it could win the next election but the polls are not showing the sort of monster lead like in the run up to the 2013 election.    I have to wonder if it is seen as a race if more people will come out and vote for the NDP?

Wednesday, May 11, 2016

What has happened to the BC Conservatives?

In early 2012 the BC Conservatives were on the rise    They had an MLA, John Van Dongen, that had crossed from the Liberals.   The party leader was a well known former federal MP, John Cummins.   By in the fall of 2012 the party shot themselves in the foot and did not do very well in the 2013 election.

The party has had three years since then to build something up.   The latest polling even shows there is an appetite for a party on the right.   There seemed to be some life in the party and the new leader Dan Brooks had some energy but he resigned this spring.

The party is holding a leadership convention in mid September but no one seems interested in being the leader.

There is a need and desire in this province for a real right wing party but there is little chance the BC Conservatives will be that party.

Monday, May 9, 2016

One year till the 2017 BC Election and time for me to ramp up by bloggin...

I thought I would not only start to do a lot more political blogging, but I was inspired by Social Media Camp this last weekend to start doing some vlogging    Today was a good day to start this because it is one year till the 2017 election.   I was pointed towards some good editing software so hopefully they will be decent quality in the future.

My focus for the next year is going to be the 2017 election    Ideally I would like to offer public opinion polls but that is only realistic if I get enough people reading the blog or watching the vlog to cover the basic cost of the poll - I can get a poll done for about $0.10 a response.

More to come over the next few days

Thursday, April 28, 2016

How is three terms effecting the 16 NDP MLAs that have only been in opposition?

The NDP in BC has almost become a long term institutional official opposition in BC.   19 of the current NDP MLAs are now come to the end of their third term in opposition.  16 of these MLAs have never served in government

While the NDP has been in opposition since 2001, none of the three NDP MLAs that served at some point between 2001 and 2005 are in the legislature.   Three of current NDP MLAs served in th 1991-2001 NDP goverment - Sue Hammell, Mike Farnworth and Leonard Krog.   But there are 16 MLAs that have served in opposition for 11 years now

The 14 following MLAs entered legislature in the 2005 election:

  • Robin Austin
  • Harry Bains
  • Raj Chouhan
  • Katrine Conroy
  • Adian Dix
  • Rob Flemming
  • Scott Fraser
  • John Horgan
  • Carole James
  • Maurine Karagianis
  • Norm Macdonald
  • Bruce Ralston
  • Doug Routley
  • Nicholas Simons
  • Shane Simpson
  • Claire Trevena

John Horgan and Adrian Dix both held senior political jobs with the 1991 to 2001 NDP government.

Three terms is a long time to be waiting to be in government when you are in the official opposition.   As a continuous group in opposition in BC this is by far the largest ever seen.  This group of 16 MLAs is unprecedented in BC history.

In the last NDP dry spell of 1975 to 1991 only had one MLA served all the way through it, Emery Barnes but he had done a term in government in 1972-75.   The only MLA in that era that served as long in opposition as the current group of 16 was Gordon Hanson who was first elected in 1979.

So far none of these MLAs have stated they will be retiring which means all 16 MLAs could be re-elected next year.   One has to wonder how these MLAs maintain their motivation.   Could this large constant group of MLAs in opposition dose the fire in the belly of all the MLAs in Victoria?   Have they become an institutionalized old guard comfortable with opposition?    

It is probably not healthy for the NDP to have 46% of their caucus having served for so long in opposition.    Whatever the outcome of the 2017 election, the NDP needs to have a lot more new blood running in the election.  No matter how good these MLAs are it is likely time for most of them to retire.

Possible Outcomes of the 2017 BC Election

In order of who likely I think the result is

  • Liberal Majority - at the moment I think this is the most likely outcome but the election is a year away and many things can happen in that year.   At this point I would say it is Christy Clark's election to lose.
  • NDP Majority - I pay closer attention to politics than the vast majority of people in BC and I can not tell you what the NDP would do as government other than not be the BC Liberals, whatever that means.   The NDP is not making a strong case for why they should be government.   The party is not resonating with the public in any significant way at the moment.
  • NDP Minority - For there to be a realistic chance of a minority government the Greens need to win more seats and just a couple more, but at least five to ten.    Each seat the Greens, or anyone else, wins, the higher the probability of a minority.   Because there is a bigger overlap between Green and Liberals and Greens and the NDP, the better the Greens do the more seats the Liberals will lose.   If the Greens can win 6 to 12 seats, which is not impossible, they will have drained off enough support from the Liberals for the NDP to win a bunch of seats and could leave us in a minority government situation.  The odds of the Greens winning more than four is not high at this time but the election is still a year away..
  • Liberal Minority -  Highly unlikely because it would require a very specific set of events to all happen and if it did I would expect it to be very close to a majority.  The result would be something like 42 Liberals, 41 NDP, 3 Greens and 1 independent.
  • Anything else - What else could there be you ask?   A completely new populist party - unlikely because I do not see the popular groundswell for this and with only a year left till the election there is not enough time left..   The Greens win a minority by winning 30 seats while the Liberals and NDP each win about 28 or 29 seats.
A this time my ball park of the odds
  1. Liberal Majority 70.00%
  2. NDP Majority 25.00%
  3. NDP Minority 4.80%
  4. Liberal Minority 0.15%
  5. Anything Else - 0.05%

Wednesday, April 6, 2016

Top 10 reasons the NDP wants to keep Mulcair

10) Official opposition is too much work, Mulcair made sure NDP MPs have a lighter work load
9) The NDP wants the hipster vote and Mulcair has a beard
8) If Mulcair is not NDP leader, who in the House of Commons will fight against the Liberal deficits?
7) The dead cat bounce, when they lose 1/2 their seats in 2019 they will hope for this again in 2023
6) Many of Canada's PMs have been white men from Quebec, Mulcair is the only viable one the NDP has
5) In 2015 the NDP did not lose, it was the public that made a mistake in how they voted, when they understand their error they will vote Mulcair in 2019 (there are people within the NDP seriously arguing this!)
4) If you do something and it goes horribly wrong, try it over and over again until it works
3) Mulcair signed a 10 year contract with no waivers and a no trade contract till 2022
2) There is no one in the NDP younger than 60 with skills or experience to lead the party.   An old white man is also the core to the NDP brand.
1) Having a popular and charismatic leader is unprincipled and the NDP will stick with Mulcair to prove that