Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Leadnow is using Trump to fundraise

These are two fundraising emails from Leadnow:
Dear Bernard,

Donald Trump was elected President of the Unites States of America last night.
It’s hard to find the words to express how many of us are feeling today: sadness, anger, rage, frustration, fear.Fear about what Trump’s election means for the world. Fear for our friends down south - especially the minority communities whose dignity, rights, and safety are threatened the most. Fear about the worst parts of Trump’s politics getting a mandate from the most powerful country in the world.
If you’re feeling that way too, you’re not alone.
The Brexit vote and Trump’s election both call on us to take a long, hard look at the institutions that are failing so many people. When we look, we can see a hunger for change in the face of uncaring elites. We can also see loud voices stoking racism for crass political gain. These same currents are getting stronger in Canada. This morning one of the most high profile Conservative leadership contenders sent an email congratulating Trump and committing to “bring his message to Canada.”1 We’ll talk about that more in the coming days.
For now, the point is that politics is changing around the world, but Trump’s politics aren’t the change that most of us hope for. He will keep doing what he always does: lie constantly, attack entire communities, and break important promises.
There is another kind of politics that is growing around the world: a politics that sees the crises we face, and places its faith in the collective action of many people, not the strong arm tactics of one man.
Trump’s election means new fears and new uncertainties that can only be countered by reaching out, digging deep, and finding new hope.
Today we feel hope when we think about you - all of the times members of the Leadnow community have shown up together, dreamed together, and fought together to turn our shared values into a lived reality for families and communities from coast to coast to coast.
We don’t need to have all the answers today. Today is a day to process how we’re feeling, and find people to connect with. In the next few days we’ll reach out with next steps to counter the worst parts of Trumps politics before they get stronger in Canada.
As one of our American friends has said: "We are going to fight. We are going to get through this, come what may. Today we despair, tomorrow we organize.”
With hope and respect,
Brittany, on behalf of the team
  1. Kellie Leitch latches on to trump’s victory,
This is the second one
 Dear Bernard,Here’s our take on Trump: he’s a dangerous fraud who is going to betray the people who voted for him, while stoking racism and hurting minorities. Do you agree? Disagree? And what do you think we should do about a powerful politician who wants to bring his tactics to Canada?Civil rights groups in the US are reporting a surge in racist acts since Trump’s election - graffiti, vandalism, street harassment and intimidation inspired by Trump’s race-baiting tactics.[1]We’ve seen this story before: cynical politicians position themselves as outsiders to tap into people’s legitimate economic insecurity and then point the finger at elites and minorities. You can already see that Trump’s being insincere about taking on elites. He’s appointed the head of the establishment Republicans to be his chief of staff in Washington.[2] But while Trump won’t really take on elites, he will do real harm to minority groups.Unfortunately, these ugly trends don’t stop at the border. Earlier today a man was filmed saying “Go Trump!” while hurling racist insults at another man on a Toronto streetcar, and a woman who runs a Jewish prayer centre in Ottawa woke up to find a swastika spray-painted on the front door of her home. [3-4]It’s going to get worse: Conservative leadership candidate Kellie Leitch is promising to use the same race-baiting tactics that defined Trump’s campaign. Now, Leitch is pulling ahead in the Conservative leadership race.[5]What do you think? We want to know what you think about Trump’s election, and if you think Leadnow should stand up to Kellie Leitch’s race-baiting tactics. Will you take our 2-minute survey?Take the survey nowIn the last week we’ve received hundreds of emails from Leadnow members sharing their feelings about the election. Many of you are feeling sadness, anger, rage, frustration, and fear, and we want you to know you’re not alone. The Brexit vote in the UK, and now Trump’s election, both call on us to take a long, hard look at the institutions that are clearly failing so many people. Around the world, people have had enough of the status quo. When we look, we can see a real hunger for change in the face of uncaring elites. But we can also see loud voices stoking racism for crass political gain.We need to come together, and decide what’s next. Time and again, we’ve seen that US politics influences the political debate here in Canada -- and we’re seeing it again now, with Kellie Leitch’s Trump-style race-baiting in the Conservative leadership contest.Let us know what you think about the US election, and how Leadnow should respond to Trump-style politics in Canada.’re in this together,Jolan, Britt, Jamie, Matthew and Amara on behalf of the entire team[1] Racist incidents are up since Donal Trumps election (Time).[2] Donal Trump picks Reince Priebus as Chief of Staff and Stephen Bannon and Strategiest (New York Times).[3] Ottawa woman wakes up to find anti-Semetic graffiti spray-painted on her home (CBC).[4] Video shows man hurling racist insults, threats on Toronto streetcar (CBC). [5] “Throwing out the elites”: Why Donald Trump’s victory could upend the Conservative leadership race (National Post).

Monday, November 14, 2016

Confessions of a Failed Election Prognosticator

PEI had a Plebiscite on Electoral Reform but will anything happen?

Yes I was at the BC Liberal Convention - it was well run and good for me to be there

I am back with the BC Liberals again.  I joined them the first time in late 1999 when a friend ask me to run his nomination campaign in the Yale Lillooet riding.   I went to the 2016 convention and I have a number of personal and political observations.

The Political
  • This convention was bigger than past BC Liberal ones I went to
  • The age of the people at the convention was much younger than I had expected.   At 51 I often still feel young at political events.   At the BC Liberal convention I felt old for the first time.   The representation of millennials was significant
  • This is not Gordon Campbell's Liberals.  In the past no serious man would have gone to the convention in anything but a suit.   I arrived in a suit on Friday and I felt overdressed   It was also a much more grass roots feeling event than in the past.   
  • The Liberals are better organized than I have ever seen them, frankly better organized than any BC party I have ever seen.   The convention theme was "Team" and it was very much how the event felt.
  • The convention was very well organized and the details well though out
  • The convention was a very positive event.   People were happy and even energetic.   
  • I have never seen as many or as well attended hospitality suites as I did on Friday night

  The Personal
  • As you may or may not know I am suffering from severe clinical depression.  And I went to the convention with some anxiety about how I would do because I tend to dislike crowds of people when I do not know a lot of them.   I did not need to worry.
  • In general the event was very welcoming for me.  Within in 10 minutes of being there I had run into five people I had not seen in years.   Over the weekend connected with a lot more people than I had expected.
  • The very positive atmosphere at the event was very good for me.   No one was talking negatively around me and that helped my mood.  It made me realize I need to not engage with negativity when it comes to politics and simply ignore the angry people online
  • The most important thing for me was that I got a lot of positive validation from the people at the convention.   I had a number of people that I really did not know come up to me and ask me how I was doing, how was the depression, how was I after the fire at the old house and more.   I several MLAs and one MP seek me out to meet me in person.  
  • Once again dissenting opinions are ok with the BC Liberals if you are expressing yourself rationally   I liked that I could talk to people I disagreed with on issues and feel like we could both hear it each other and find points of commonality

Saturday, November 12, 2016

Some Ranking of the Conservative Leadership Candidates

There are 12 candidates formally in the race and three more declared, a huge field,  A number of people I know are concerned about Kellie Leitch and considering joining the Conservatives to stop her becoming leader.

To help understand the race I quickly did some ranking of the candidates.

Ranking by relative strength of campaign -  remember this is just my approximation

  1. Kellie Leitch - leading in the polls and has raised the most money
  2. Maxime Bernier - has a strong grassroots organization and is the only real libertarian the race
  3. Andrew Scheer - has the backing of the most MPs
  4. Lisa Raitt - strongest 2nd tier candidate or weakest 1st tier candidae
  5. Erin O'Toole - personable but limited experience in politics
  6. Steven Blaney - not personally popular
  7. Michael Chong - if he catches on with non Conservative members and they join the party support him he could do well.  He is not all that popular with many Conservatives
  8. Chris Alexander - a boringly alright MP
  9. Andrew Saxton - MP from BC.  I am not sure why he is running
  10. Deepak Obhrai - his heart is not in it and really wants Peter McKay to run
  11. Brad Trost - MP going for the very social conservative vote
  12. Dan Lindsay - no idew why he is running
  13. Adrienne Snow - has not yet filed
  14. Pierre Lemieux - has not yet filed
  15. Rick Peterson - has not yet filed - lost the BC Conservative leadership to Dan Brooks which says he can not organize at all

Ranked from most social conservative to least

  1. Pierre Lemieux -  strongly anti abortion
  2. Brad Trost - strongly anti-abortion
  3. Adrienne Snow - a pragmatic social conservative
  4. Kellie Leitch 
  5. Steven Blaney
  6. Rick Peterson - mainly based on an anit immigrant stance but I suspect he is pandering
  7. Andrew Scheer - middle of the pack because I have no idea where he stands on the issues
  8. Dan Lindsay - middle of the pack because I have no idea where he stands on the issues
  9. Andrew Saxton  - middle of the pack because I have no idea where he stands on the issues
  10. Erin O'Toole
  11. Chris Alexander - supports settlement of First Nation treaties and increased immigration but was part the barbaric cultural practices stuff
  12. Lisa Raitt
  13. Deepak Obhrai - supports more immigrants
  14. Michael Chong - supports reform to how parliament works
  15. Maxime Bernier - libertarian
I would rank them on the environment but only Chong seems to have any green creds of any sort.   I am not certain but I think Maxime Bernier, Lisa Raitt  Erin O'Toole and Chris Alexander would not be actively trying to harm the environment.

Here are the candidates someone that is not a conservative might be able to back ordered from best to worst
Michael Chong
Lisa Raitt
Maxime Bernier
Chris Alexander
Deepak Obhai