Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Map of the five proposed natural gas pipelines in northern BC

533 days till the next BC election

When we were this far out from the 2013 BC election the NDP was 11 to 19 percentage points ahead of the BC Liberals.   In general Christy Clark was an unpopular leader of an unpopular and tired government.   This was a government lacking in direction and losing a lot of support on the right.

Fast forward four years into the future and the political landscape in BC is nothing like last time.   There have been very few polls but Insights West did release one recently and it shows the NDP at 39% versus the Liberals at 34%.   There is clearly no serious dislike of the BC Liberals in BC at this time.   The BC Liberals are not in the same sort of position that the federal Conservatives.

The BC Liberals do not look like the tired government that they were in 2011/12.   They have some problems but few things that are bad enough to sink a government.   There is no "quick wins" sort of stuff lately.

The NDP just had their convention, not that anyone outside of a small group of nerds noticed.    This convention should have been the one where the NDP showed people what their core policies were.   This is the convention where John Horgan should have given a barnstormer speech.   This is when the core activists should have been all energized for the next election.

I do not think the BC NDP has really ever accepted they lost the 2013 election due to fundamental problems with the party.    Adrian Dix was a bad choice as a leader, still having him in the caucus is bad for 2017 but if he runs again the BC Liberals will have a field day with it.   The NDP is supposed to be the government in waiting but I have no idea what their policies are on most issues

Here is the list of the core issues the BC NDP is highlighting on their webpage:

Nothing on poverty, nothing on economic development, nothing on First Nations, nothing on lands and resources, nothing on the environment and I could go.

In 2013 the NDP ran in the election as if they had won and did not need to do anything and just sit on their lead.    It did not work for Adrian Dix and it really did not work for Thomas Mulcair.

The redistribution of the electoral boundaries this time have lead to fewer changes than normally.   There is a new seat in Surrey and a new one in Richmond.   Based on the 2013 election the Liberals would have won the Richmond seat and would have marginally won the new Surrey seat.   This really does not help the NDP much.

What is also not good for the NDP is that Green party support is clearly concentrated on Vancouver Island, especially southern Vancouver Island.  The Insights West poll had the Greens at 25% on the Island and the NDP at 37%.   In the latest federal election the Green party managed to get more votes than the NDP in the three Victoria area ridings.   It is realistic for the BC Green party to win three or four seats in Greater Victoria in the 2017 election.   The only thing that would offset this is that the Greens will likely bleed off enough BC Liberal support to allow the NDP to win Comox Valley and Parksville Qualicum.

What would benefit the NDP would be a strong BC Conservative party.   In November 2011 the BC Conservatives were very much on the rise but through the inability of the leader John Cummins to work with others the party fell apart before the provincial election.   Since the 2013 election the BC Conservatives have elected a new leader but the party is not nearly as active as it has been in the past.   I do not see the BC Conservatives threatening to win any seats.
At this point I do not see the BC Liberals losing the next election unless there is something dramatic political mistake that happens on their part.

Monday, November 23, 2015

For the last seven years we have had at least on women premier in office in Canada

We currently have three women as premiers in Canada - Christy Clark in BC, Kathleen Wynne in Ontario and Rachel Notley in Alberta.  Since the selection of Eva Aariak to be premier of Nunavut on November 14th 2008 we have always had at least one woman premier in Canada.   This is 2566 consecutive days.   Of the 12 women that have been first ministers,  seven of them have served in office since 2008

Here is how they all stack up by time in office - underlined means currently in office, bold means won at least one election.

  1. Eva Aariak         Nunavut 1827 days
  2. Christy Clark      BC      1715 days
  3. Nellie Cournoyea   NWT     1469 days
  4. Catherine Callbeck PEI     1353 days
  5. Kathy Dunderdale   NF      1148 days
  6. Kathleen Wynne     Ontario 1016 days
  7. Alison Redford     Alberta  898 days
  8. Pat Duncan         Yukon    884 days
  9. Pauline Marois     Quebec   581 days
  10. Rita Johnson       BC       217 days
  11. Rachel Notley      Alberta  183 days
  12. Kim Campbell       Federal  132 days

Next March Christy Clark will become the longest serving female first minister in Canadian history.

Each time I have looked at this I have considered how many person days each first minister has governed for - this is time in office multiplied by population governed.    I think that in many ways it is a better measure of the relative impact of women in politics.    As you can see Kathleen Wynne tops the list when you calculated it this way.

The number is person days governed

  1. Kathleen Wynne     Ont 13,057,000,000 Lib
  2. Christy Clark      BC   7,546,000,000 Lib
  3. Pauline Marois     Que  4,582,000,000 PQ
  4. Kim Campbell       Fed  3,786,000,000 PC
  5. Alison Redford     Ab   3,273,000,000 PC
  6. Rita Johnson       BC     715,500,000 Socred
  7. Rachel Notley      Ab     667,000,000 NDP
  8. Kathy Dunderdale   NL     590,700,000 PC
  9. Catherine Callbeck PEI    149,000,000 Lib
  10. Nellie Cournoyea   NWT     92,000,000 na
  11. Eva Aariak         Nu      58,300,000 na
  12. Pat Duncan         Yk      24,800,000 Lib

What is also interesting is that four of the women did significantly better than expected in their elections - that being Alison Redford, Christy Clark, Kathleen Wynne and Rachel Notley.

On the other hand two women were forced out of the office of premier in an atypical manner early on in their first term as elected premier.  

I also looked at this on:
January 22nd 2015
October 1st 2013
February 25th 2013
 January 2nd 2013
June 14th 2011

Monday, November 16, 2015

Time to expand refundable containers

At the moment only some drink containers are part of the refundable container system here in BC.
All food containers should be part of the refundable system.  It makes no sense to only make certain drink containers refundable.

We should start with all the milk containers - milk should not be exempt from the refundable system.
Next we should include all hard plastic or metal containers - things such as yogurt containers, soup cans etc
Finally all the Styrofoam containers for take away food or even for meat packages.

This would dramatically increase the amount of materials being collected but the benefit would that the materials would be sorted by type and therefore materials that could actually be recycled in a useful manner.

At the moment most of what we do not return for refunds ends up in the mass residential recycling and ends up going into the landfill and not recycled.   Sorting the materials as they enter the recycling system is much easier than trying to sort them when they are all collected in a mass.

The addition of more materials being in the refund system would mean a lot more money for local youth groups such as the Scouts or high school sports teams.

There would be an increased cost to the public but it would be in the range of 4% to 5% price increase if the material was not returned by the person.   The increase for people that regularly returned their materials would be at most 1%.

This change would reduce the cost for local government because the amount of materials collected would be reduced.   Most of the materials collected by local government would then be paper and cardboard.

Sunday, August 9, 2015

Political cartoon about door to door canvassing

Stephen has done another political cartoon for the election.   Yesterday he was the only home when the NDP came to door asked this question. 

Saturday, August 8, 2015

A political cartoon by Stephen

How can anyone be a child of mine and not be forced to be active politically in some way.   I asked my 15 year old son Stephen to try and make a political cartoon each day of the election.  Here is the first one