Friday, April 6, 2012

Trying to predict the by-elections

I have very little data to work with, but here is my stab at what I think is going on:

Port Moody - Coquitlam
Joe Trasolini NDP - 55%
Dennis Marsden Liberal - 30%
Christine Clark Conserative - 15%

Chilliwack Hope
John Martin Conservative - 40%
Laurie Throness Liberal - 35%
Gwen O'Mahonney NDP - 23%
Lewis Dahlby Libertarian - 2%

Without local polling I have to rely on what bits and pieces I am hearing from the various campaigns.   My prediction is that the Liberals will come second in both of the by-elections and that the total vote for the three parties over the two by-elections will be roughly equal.

Just a quick final note on Lewis Dahlby, everything I can find out about him is that he lives in Port Moody, so why is he running in Chilliwack Hope and not the riding he can vote in?
 

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

"total vote for the three parties over the two by-elections will be roughly equal" I don't understand what you're saying

NDP 55% + 23% = 78% / 2 ~ 38%
BC Lib 30% + 35% = 65% / 2 ~ 33%
Con BC 15% + 40% = 55% / 2 ~ 28%

Bernard said...

I was talking votes and not percentages. I see Chilliwack hoping with a higher turn out than Port Moody Coquitlam

Anonymous said...

the NDP took 33% last election,those are solid numbers for the NDP, There is a maJor split on the right, this ones a horse race.

Anonymous said...

with the NDP taking 33% in the last Chilliwack election ( and theese are the die hard supporters ) Depending on voter turnout, this ones a horse race .